ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 1998 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF JEANNE IS NOW PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB REFLECT THE WEAKENED STATE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 70 KT. SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT JEANNE HAS SLOWED AND IS A BIT LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 050/12 KT. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AND STEERED AROUND THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE SCATTER. THE EXTREMES ARE REPRESENTED BY NOGAPS WHICH CONTINUES NORTHEAST MOTION THROUGHOUT 72 HOURS WHILE THE GFDL MOVES JEANNE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A NORTHEAST COURSE THROUGH 36 HOURS WITH A MORE EASTWARD HEADING THEREAFTER...IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH THE AVN AND UKMET SOLUTIONS. THE NHC TRACK TAKES JEANNE INTO PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS WHERE WEAKENING AND A TRANSITION TO EXTRA-TROPICAL IS EXPECTED BY 48 HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CONDITIONS TO THE AZORES WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS. GUINEY FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/1500Z 36.5N 34.8W 70 KTS 12HR VT 30/0000Z 37.3N 33.1W 60 KTS 24HR VT 30/1200Z 38.2N 30.7W 55 KTS 36HR VT 01/0000Z 39.0N 27.7W 50 KTS 48HR VT 01/1200Z 39.5N 24.5W 45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 02/1200Z 39.5N 18.0W 45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN