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HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 1998
 
IT IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER ON IR IMAGERY.  WHILE DEEP
CONVECTION IS PRESENT...IT IS NOT WELL-ORGANIZED AND THE SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE UNDER WESTERLY SHEAR.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE DECREASING
BUT CI NUMBERS ARE UNCHANGED...AND SO IS THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND
SPEED...80 KT.
 
EVEN WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN POSITIONING...IT APPEARS THAT THE TRACK
OF JEANNE HAS TURNED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT.  INITIAL MOTION IS NEAR
060/18 KT.  ONE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS BYPASSING JEANNE TO THE
NORTH...BUT NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE HURRICANE SHOULD
GRADUALLY BECOME PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A MORE EASTWARD TRACK WITH TIME. 
THIS TAKES JEANNE INTO COOL WATERS WHERE WEAKENING AND A TRANSITION
TO EXTRATROPICAL IS LIKELY.

THE SYSTEM COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM OR...LESS LIKELY...HURRICANE
CONDITIONS TO THE AZORES WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
 
RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/0900Z 36.2N  34.4W    80 KTS
12HR VT     29/1800Z 37.3N  31.7W    70 KTS
24HR VT     30/0600Z 38.1N  28.6W    60 KTS
36HR VT     30/1800Z 38.4N  25.5W    50 KTS
48HR VT     01/0600Z 38.5N  22.3W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     02/0600Z 38.0N  17.5W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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