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HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 28 1998
 
THE CENTER OF JEANNE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION...CLOUD TO TOPS TO -75C. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 5.0 AND 4.5...RESPECTIVELY. THE INTENSITY 
WILL BE INCREASED TO 80 KNOTS. WITH THE OUTFLOW WELL-ESTABLISHED
OVER MOST OF THE SYSTEM AND WARM SST/S...26-27 DEG C...JEANNES
INTENSITY WILL BE MAINTAINED AT HURRICANE STATUS THROUGH 36 HOURS. 
THEREAFTER...THE SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS
AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRA-TROPICAL BY 48 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 035/18 KT. THE MID-LEVEL
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH NEAR 55W WHICH IS STEERING THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND DE-AMPLIFY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE FORWARD MOTION TO SLOW SLIGHTLY AS THE TRACK
BENDS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND EAST.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY THE WITH MOST OF THE MODELS SHOWING A
NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST MOTION THROUGH 36-48 HOURS. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SHOWS THIS SCENARIO WITH AN EASTWARD
HEADING BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS.  THIS REPRESENTS A SOUTHWARD
ADJUSTED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE AVIATION AND UKMET SOLUTIONS.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK BRINGS
JEANNE CLOSER TO THE AZORES...AND THE POTENTIAL OF TROPICAL STORM-
FORCE WINDS TO THE ISLANDS BY 36 HOURS.
 
GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/2100Z 34.2N  37.9W    80 KTS
12HR VT     29/0600Z 36.0N  36.0W    80 KTS
24HR VT     29/1800Z 37.9N  33.3W    75 KTS
36HR VT     30/0600Z 39.1N  30.1W    70 KTS
48HR VT     30/1800Z 39.5N  27.0W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     01/1800Z 39.5N  21.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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