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HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON SEP 28 1998
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT JEANNE IS A
HEALTHY HURRICANE.  THE CENTER IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB
AT 4.5.  ACCORDINGLY...THE INTENSITY WILL BE INCREASED TO 75 KNOTS.
THE OUTFLOW IS FAIRLY WELL-DEVELOPED OVER MOST OF THE SYSTEM AND
ANALYSES FROM THE COOPERATIVE INSTITUTE FOR METEOROLOGICAL SATELLITE
STUDIES...CIMSS..INDICATE THAT A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  JEANNE SHOULD WEAKEN BELOW
HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 36 HOURS AS IT APPROACHES PROGRESSIVELY COOLER
WATERS...23-24 DEG C.  THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO EXTRA-TROPICAL
STATUS BY 48 HOURS.
 
SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT JEANNE HAS ACCELERATED A BIT OVER THE
LAST 12 HOURS AND IS NOW MOVING NEAR 025/20 KNOTS.  THE MID-LEVEL
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH NEAR 60W WHICH IS STEERING THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND DE-AMPLIFY.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE
FORWARD MOTION TO SLOW AS THE TRACK BENDS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS TWO PRIMARY SOLUTIONS WITH ONE GROUP OF
MODELS KEEPING THE SYSTEM ON A NORTH-NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST COURSE
AND ANOTHER MOVING JEANNE NORTHEAST THROUGH 24 HOURS WITH A EAST
TO SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK BEYOND.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
REPRESENTS A COMPROMISE SHOWING A EAST-NORTHEAST MOTION AFTER
36 HOURS...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THIS IS IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET.
 
GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/1500Z 33.4N  39.0W    75 KTS
12HR VT     29/0000Z 35.4N  37.2W    75 KTS
24HR VT     29/1200Z 38.6N  34.7W    65 KTS
36HR VT     30/0000Z 40.3N  32.0W    55 KTS
48HR VT     30/1200Z 41.5N  29.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     01/1200Z 43.0N  24.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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