ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON SEP 28 1998
 
INFRARED TEMPERATURES...IN THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE ESTIMATED
CENTER...HAVE COOLED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...SO THE SYSTEM IS
STILL SOMEWHAT HEALTHY EVEN WITH THE APPARENT VERTICAL SHEARING. 
DVORAK INTENSITY NUMBERS REMAIN AT 4.0.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS 65
KNOTS.  HURRICANE INTENSITY IS HELD THROUGH THE 12-HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD AND CONTINUED SLOW WEAKENING IS PREDICTED...AS WAS THE CASE
IN OUR PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
 
THE CURRENT MOTION IS 025/16.  THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
HAVE TWO MINDS ABOUT THE FORECAST TRACK.  THE DEEP LAYER
MODELS...LBAR...GFDL...BAM DEEP AND NHC90 YIELD TRACKS WITH 72 HOUR
POSITIONS SOUTH OF THE AZORES.  THE SHALLOW AND GLOBAL MODELS YIELD
72 HOUR POSITIONS NORTH OF 40N.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO SETS AND MOVES ALONG THE UKMET FORECAST
TRACK...AND IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK
AND A LITTLE SLOWER.
 
JARVINEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/0900Z 31.0N  40.4W    65 KTS
12HR VT     28/1800Z 33.2N  39.2W    65 KTS
24HR VT     29/0600Z 36.1N  37.2W    60 KTS
36HR VT     29/1800Z 38.6N  34.4W    60 KTS
48HR VT     30/0600Z 40.5N  30.9W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     01/0600Z 42.7N  25.2W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
NNNN