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HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 1998

DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS ARE NOW 4.0 FROM ALL CENTERS. 
THEREFORE THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 65 KNOTS...MINIMUM
HURRICANE INTENSITY.  THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS STILL UNDER THE DEEP
CONVECTION BUT THE LAST VISIBLE IMAGERY APPEARED TO SHOW IT
DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION INDICATING
VERTICAL SHEARING.  THEREFORE HURRICANE INTENSITY IS HELD THROUGH
THE 12-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD AND CONTINUED SLOW WEAKENING IS
PREDICTED UNTIL WE HAVE A 50-KNOT STORM BY 72 HOURS. 
 
THE CURRENT MOTION IS 015/16...NEARLY THE SAME AS PREVIOUSLY.  GIVEN
THE VIEW IN THE LAST VISIBLE PICTURES...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
ASCERTAIN THE POSITION OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IN THE INFRARED
IMAGERY LATER TONIGHT.  THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE IS OF TWO MINDS FOR
THIS PACKAGE.  THE DEEP LAYER MODELS...LBAR...GFDL...BAM DEEP AND
NHC90 YIELD TRACKS WITH 72 HOUR POSITIONS SOUTH OF THE AZORES.  THE
SHALLOW AND GLOBAL MODELS YIELD 72 HOUR POSITIONS NORTH OF 40N AND
WEST OF 32W.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE
TWO SETS AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST..TAKING THE STORM
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE AZORES ON A SLIGHTLY SLOWER TRACK.

GROSS

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/0300Z 29.3N  41.1W    65 KTS
12HR VT     28/1200Z 31.6N  40.4W    65 KTS
24HR VT     29/0000Z 34.5N  38.3W    60 KTS
36HR VT     29/1200Z 37.2N  35.2W    60 KTS
48HR VT     30/0000Z 39.1N  31.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     01/0000Z 41.4N  22.6W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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