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HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 1998

ALTHOUGH THE FORWARD SPEED HAS INCREASED TODAY...TO AROUND 15
KNOTS...THE 18Z TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN
BEFORE.  THE LATEST AVN FORECAST AT 500 MB FORECASTS THE RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO BUILD NORTHWARD MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED.  AS A RESULT...THE STRONGER WESTERLIES SHIFT FARTHER
NORTH...AND THE STEERING FLOW DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD IS NOT AS
FAST AS SHOWN IN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUN.  CONSEQUENTLY...THE CURRENT
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
PACKAGE.  HOWEVER IT STILL HAS JEANNE APPROACHING THE AZORES IN
ABOUT 48 HOURS.

INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED...AVERAGING AROUND 70 KNOTS.  THE
CENTER IS STILL UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION.  LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS PREDICTED UNTIL THE SYSTEM PASSES THE AZORES...AT WHICH
TIME IT WILL LIKELY BE LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.  HOWEVER
THERE ARE NOW SOME INDICATIONS THAT INCREASING SHEAR COULD WEAKEN
JEANNE SOONER THAN THAT. 
 
PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/2100Z 28.3N  41.3W    70 KTS
12HR VT     28/0600Z 30.6N  40.4W    70 KTS
24HR VT     28/1800Z 33.3N  38.6W    70 KTS
36HR VT     29/0600Z 36.0N  35.5W    70 KTS
48HR VT     29/1800Z 37.5N  31.5W    70 KTS
72HR VT     30/1800Z 40.0N  22.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
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