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HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 1998

THE CENTER IS EMBEDDED IN A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION AND THERE
ARE WEAK BANDING FEATURES OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE...WITH NO EYE
EVIDENT.  CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 70 KNOTS...THE AVERAGE OF
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB MIAMI AND SAB WASHINGTON.  NO CHANGE IN
INTENSITY IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALTHOUGH THE
SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS STILL
POSSIBLE.  IN ANY EVENT...JEANNE SHOULD BE LOSING TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AFTER IT PASSES THE AZORES.

THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...AND WILL
BEGIN TO MAKE CONTACT WITH THE HIGHER-LATITUDE WESTERLIES SOON.  THE
CURRENT MOTION IS SLIGHTLY EAST OF NORTH AND THE TRACK
FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...CALLS FOR A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND THEN EAST-NORTHEAST WITH ACCELERATION.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS JEANNE NEAR THE AZORES IN 48 HOURS.

PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/1500Z 26.3N  41.6W    70 KTS
12HR VT     28/0000Z 28.0N  41.0W    70 KTS
24HR VT     28/1200Z 32.0N  39.0W    70 KTS
36HR VT     29/0000Z 35.5N  35.5W    70 KTS
48HR VT     29/1200Z 38.0N  30.0W    70 KTS
72HR VT     30/1200Z 41.0N  18.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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