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HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 1998
 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED
SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 70
KNOTS.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN A MUCH
LARGER ANTICYCLONE... SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED TO HURRICANE IVAN
SEVERAL DAYS AGO...SO SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
UNTIL THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATER NEAR THE 72 HOUR FORECAST
POSITION WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.  
 
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 005/11...INDICATING THAT WE ARE NEAR OR
HAVE BEGUN THE TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.  ACCELERATION TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST IS FORECAST.  THE CURRENT TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF
THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS A REASONABLE BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE.
 
JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/0900Z 24.8N  41.8W    70 KTS
12HR VT     27/1800Z 26.4N  41.7W    75 KTS
24HR VT     28/0600Z 30.0N  40.0W    75 KTS
36HR VT     28/1800Z 34.3N  37.4W    75 KTS
48HR VT     29/0600Z 37.5N  32.6W    70 KTS
72HR VT     30/0600Z 40.5N  18.9W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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