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HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 1998
 
DVORAK CI NUMBERS HAVE COME DOWN TO 4.0 AND T NUMBERS RANGE FROM 3.5
TO 4.0. THEREFORE THE INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS. HOWEVER
THE VISIBLE IMAGERY FROM THIS MORNING SUGGESTS THAT JEANNE IS A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...SO THE WEAKENING TREND MAY HAVE ENDED. THE
SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL AND THE GFDL MODEL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT
THE STORM WILL REMAIN A HURRICANE THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THAT SOME
INTENSIFICATION IS STILL POSSIBLE. AS A COMPROMISE...THE
INTENSITY IS HELD CONSTANT THROUGH 72 HOURS.
 
ALL OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS INDICATE A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION
FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND THEN A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST BY 72 HOURS.
THE CURRENT MOTION IS 345/10 KNOTS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...IN AGREEMENT WITH
MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS. 
 
DEMARIA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/1500Z 22.2N  40.4W    65 KTS
12HR VT     27/0000Z 23.6N  40.8W    65 KTS
24HR VT     27/1200Z 25.9N  40.8W    65 KTS
36HR VT     28/0000Z 28.5N  40.3W    65 KTS
48HR VT     28/1200Z 31.4N  38.9W    65 KTS
72HR VT     29/1200Z 39.0N  33.0W    65 KTS
 
 
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