ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 1998
 
JEANNE CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. DVORAK CI
NUMBERS HAVE COME DOWN TO 4.0. THEREFORE THE INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED
AT 70 KNOTS.  HOWEVER THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL AND THE GFDL MODEL
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE STORM WILL REMAIN A HURRICANE THROUGH
72 HOURS. IF THE SHEAR RELAXES IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AS SUGGESTED
BY THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE AVN FORECAST...
STRENGTHENING MIGHT STILL BE POSSIBLE. AS A COMPROMISE...THE
INTENSITY IS HELD CONSTANT THROUGH 72 HOURS.
 
ALL OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS INDICATE A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE CURRENT MOTION IS 340/10 KNOTS...BUT
AN GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...SINCE THE GFDL...UKMET...AND LBAR MODELS INDICATE A NORTH
NORTHEAST MOTION AFTER 48 HOURS.
 
JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/0900Z 21.5N  40.0W    70 KTS
12HR VT     26/1800Z 22.9N  40.6W    70 KTS
24HR VT     27/0600Z 25.0N  40.8W    70 KTS
36HR VT     27/1800Z 27.2N  40.7W    70 KTS
48HR VT     28/0600Z 30.0N  40.0W    70 KTS
72HR VT     29/0600Z 37.1N  37.2W    70 KTS
 
 
NNNN