ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 1998

IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS JEANNE HAS LOOKED LESS IMPRESSIVE ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DVORAK CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.5.
THEREFORE...THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 80 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH THE
OUTFLOW ON VISIBLE IMAGERY STILL LOOKS FAIRLY WELL
ESTABLISHED...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE STORM IS BEING
IMPACTED BY WESTERLY SHEAR. THE WESTERLIES IMPACTING JEANNE APPEAR
TO BE AT A LOWER LEVEL THAN THAT OF THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW.  ALTHOUGH
THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT IS NOT IDEAL...THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL
AND GFDL MODEL SUGGEST THAT THE JEANNE WILL STILL BE ABLE TO
MAINTAIN HURRICANE INTENSITY THROUGH 72 HOURS. 
 
RECENT SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES ARE A LITTLE NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK SUGGESTING THAT JEANNE IS NOW MAKING ITS
ANTICIPATED TURN TO THE NORTH. THE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/10
KNOTS. THE TRACK MODELS ARE DIVIDED INTO TWO CLUSTER...WITH THE
LBAR...UKMET...AND NHC98 MODELS SLOWER AND MORE TO THE EAST OF THE
OTHER GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST. 
 
DEMARIA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/2100Z 19.7N  38.6W    80 KTS
12HR VT     26/0600Z 21.1N  39.4W    80 KTS
24HR VT     26/1800Z 22.9N  40.3W    75 KTS
36HR VT     27/0600Z 25.1N  41.1W    75 KTS
48HR VT     27/1800Z 28.3N  41.2W    75 KTS
72HR VT     28/1800Z 35.5N  40.3W    75 KTS
 
 
NNNN