ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 1998
 
THE INTENSITY OF JEANNE REMAINS STEADY AT 90 KNOTS AS INDICATED BY
SATELLITE ESTIMATES.  THE AVN MODEL INDICATES THAT MOST OF THE
ENERGY IN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF
JEANNE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH SOME
RIDGING BEHIND THE TROUGH. THEREFORE THE INTENSITY IS HELD CONSTANT
TO 36 HOURS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AT 48 AND 72 HOURS AS JEANNE
APPROACHES A MUCH LARGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO
AMPLIFY IN FRONT OF THE STORM IN ABOUT 2 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFDL MODEL. 

THE CURRENT MOTION OF JEANNE IS 300/10 WHICH SUGGESTS THAT JEANNE
HAS SLOWED DOWN. HOWEVER...THE STORM IS STILL EXPECTED TO TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST BY 24 HOURS AND TO THE NORTH BY 72 HOURS. SOME
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AFTER 48 HOURS AS JEANNE
APPROACHES A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY IN
FRONT OF THE STORM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST AND NEARLY ALL OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE
MODELS.
  
DEMARIA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/1500Z 18.8N  38.4W    90 KTS
12HR VT     26/0000Z 19.9N  39.7W    90 KTS
24HR VT     26/1200Z 21.8N  41.5W    90 KTS
36HR VT     27/0000Z 24.2N  42.6W    90 KTS
48HR VT     27/1200Z 27.0N  43.0W    85 KTS
72HR VT     28/1200Z 33.8N  42.3W    85 KTS
 
 
NNNN