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HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU SEP 24 1998

THE INTENSITY OF JEANNE IS HOLDING STEADY AT 90 KNOTS AS INDICATED
BY SATELLITE ESTIMATES. THE STORM IS APPROACHING AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WHICH MAKES THE INTENSITY FORECAST MORE UNCERTAIN. THE
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PROBABLY INCREASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS
WHICH MAY ACT TO WEAKEN THE STORM. HOWEVER...IN SOME CASES
INTERACTION WITH A TROUGH CAN LEAD TO INTENSIFICATION. WITHOUT
GUIDANCE AS TO WHICH PROCESS WILL BE MORE IMPORTANT THE INTENSITY IS
HELD STEADY TO 48 HOURS WITH SOME WEAKENING BY 72 HOURS. 
 
JEANNE IS CONTINUING ITS GRADUAL TURN TOWARDS THE NORTH. THE CURRENT
MOTION IS 300/12 KNOTS AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWARD BY 72 HOURS. THIS MOTION IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE NOGAPS AND GFDL MODELS. 
 
DEMARIA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/0300Z 17.8N  36.8W    90 KTS
12HR VT     25/1200Z 18.7N  38.5W    90 KTS
24HR VT     26/0000Z 20.1N  40.6W    90 KTS
36HR VT     26/1200Z 21.9N  42.2W    90 KTS
48HR VT     27/0000Z 24.1N  43.2W    85 KTS
72HR VT     28/0000Z 29.4N  43.6W    85 KTS
 
 
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