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HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 24 1998
 
DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB RANGE BETWEEN 4.5 AND 5.0. THE
GENERAL APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM ON SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS NOT
CHANGED IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS SO THE INTENSITY IS HELD
AT 90 KNOTS. THE OUTFLOW NEAR THE SYSTEM IS STILL FAIRLY WELL
ESTABLISHED...BUT UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES ARE GETTING CLOSE TO THE
NORTH AND WEST SIDE OF JEANNE. THE INTENSITY IS HELD CONSTANT
THROUGH 36 HOURS WITH SOME WEAKENING BY 72 HOURS. 

JEANNE IS STILL MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST NORTHWEST...BUT WITH A
SLIGHTLY LARGER NORTHWARD COMPONENT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/12
KNOTS. ALL OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS INDICATE A TURN TOWARDS THE
NORTH AFTER 48 HOURS. THE NOGAPS TRACK IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH
THE OTHER GUIDANCE MODELS THAN IN THE PREVIOUS FEW RUNS...ALTHOUGH
IT IS STILL SOMEWHAT TO THE EAST OF THE OTHER TRACKS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST AND IS
CLOSE TO THE GFDL TRACK. 

DEMARIA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/2100Z 17.2N  35.9W    90 KTS
12HR VT     25/0600Z 17.9N  37.8W    90 KTS
24HR VT     25/1800Z 19.1N  40.1W    90 KTS
36HR VT     26/0600Z 20.8N  42.0W    90 KTS
48HR VT     26/1800Z 22.7N  43.4W    85 KTS
72HR VT     27/1800Z 27.6N  43.9W    85 KTS
 
 
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