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HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 24 1998
 
DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE 5.0 SO THE INTENSITY IS HELD
AT 90 KNOTS. VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT AN EYE IS BECOMING
APPARENT AGAIN AND THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THEREFORE SOME FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS
FORECAST. IN THE LONGER RANGE JEANNE WILL BE APPROACHING AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH SO THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE. BECAUSE OF THIS
LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER 48
HOURS. 

THE SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES FROM THIS MORNING WERE A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND SUGGESTED A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/12 KNOTS.
THE GENERAL WEST NORTHWEST MOTION IS STILL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 36 WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AT 48 TO 72
HOURS. NEARLY ALL OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS INDICATE A NORTHWARD
TURN...ALTHOUGH NOGAPS TURNS JEANNE SOONER THAN THE REST. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFDL MODEL. 

DEMARIA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/1500Z 16.7N  34.6W    90 KTS
12HR VT     25/0000Z 17.4N  36.6W    95 KTS
24HR VT     25/1200Z 18.5N  39.2W    95 KTS
36HR VT     26/0000Z 19.7N  41.5W    95 KTS
48HR VT     26/1200Z 21.4N  43.1W    90 KTS
72HR VT     27/1200Z 25.0N  44.4W    85 KTS
 
 
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