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HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 24 1998
 
ALTHOUGH AN EYE IS NOT APPARENT ON THE IR IMAGERY...DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY T-NUMBERS FROM THREE CENTERS ARE ALL 5.0 OR 90 KNOTS.
THEREFORE THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 90 KNOTS.  ALL
GLOBAL MODELS...AVN...NOGAPS...UKMET...DEVELOP AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
AHEAD OF JEANNE IN THREE DAYS TIME.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD
THROUGH 48 HOURS AFTER WHICH SOME WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS JEANNE
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES.
 
JEANNE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF AN ANTICYCLONE SO THE WEST NORTHWEST
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.  THE
INITIAL MOTION OF JEANNE REMAINS 285/14 KNOTS.  IN THE 48 TO 72 HOUR
RANGE...LBAR...UKMET...GFDL AND A98E MODELS ALL FORECAST A NORTHWEST
TURN.  NOGAPS ALSO TURNS THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST BUT MUCH
EARLIER THAN THE OTHERS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS AN
EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS.  THE CURRENT 72-
HOUR POSITION AND IS A LITTLE MORE NORTH THEN PREVIOUSLY.
 
GROSS

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/0900Z 16.2N  34.7W    90 KTS
12HR VT     24/1800Z 16.8N  36.9W    90 KTS
24HR VT     25/0600Z 17.7N  39.4W    90 KTS
36HR VT     25/1800Z 18.9N  41.9W    90 KTS
48HR VT     26/0600Z 20.3N  43.9W    90 KTS
72HR VT     27/0600Z 23.5N  46.0W    85 KTS
 
 
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