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HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 23 1998
 
ALTHOUGH AN EYE IS NOT APPARENT ON THE IR IMAGERY...DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY T-NUMBERS RANGE FROM 4.5 TO 5.0. BASED UPON THESE
ESTIMATES THE INTENSITY OF JEANNE IS INCREASED TO 85 KNOTS. THE AVN
MODEL ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A SUBSTANTIAL UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH AHEAD OF JEANNE. HOWEVER...THE AVN FORECAST SUGGESTS
THAT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH WILL DECREASE AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES WESTWARD WITH THE STORM.  THEREFORE...INTENSIFICATION TO
90 KNOTS IS FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS. BY 72 HOURS JEANNE WILL BE
CLOSE TO THE UPPER WESTERLIES SO SOME WEAKENING IS PREDICTED.

JEANNE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF AN ANTICYCLONE SO THE WEST NORTHWEST
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE INITIAL
MOTION OF JEANNE...285/14 KNOTS...IS NEARLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. IN THE 48 TO 72 HOUR RANGE THE NOGAPS...LBAR...AND UKMET
MODELS SUGGEST A NORTHWEST TURN. THE FORECAST TRACK IS AN EXTENSION
OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS AND IS A
LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT 72 HOURS. 
 
DEMARIA 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/0300Z 15.7N  33.1W    85 KTS
12HR VT     24/1200Z 16.3N  35.2W    85 KTS
24HR VT     25/0000Z 17.2N  37.9W    90 KTS
36HR VT     25/1200Z 18.4N  40.3W    90 KTS
48HR VT     26/0000Z 19.6N  42.7W    90 KTS
72HR VT     27/0000Z 22.5N  46.3W    85 KTS
 
 
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