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HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED SEP 23 1998
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN EYE...FOR A SHORT PERIOD...EARLY IN THE
EVENING BUT HAS BEEN OBSCURED FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS BECAUSE OF
A CDO CAUSED BY A BURST OF CONVECTION.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB AND GLOBAL ARE 4.5. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS INCREASED TO 75 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR 43W WHICH IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 72-HOUR PERIOD.  THE ASSOCIATED
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF JEANNE BEYOND 36 HOURS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/15 KNOTS.  THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
NORTH OF JEANNE SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE SYSTEM ON A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWEST COURSE THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND MOST OF THE TRACK MODEL
GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS AS DOES THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST. THIS TRACK
IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/0900Z 14.4N  28.7W    75 KTS
12HR VT     23/1800Z 15.0N  30.9W    80 KTS
24HR VT     24/0600Z 15.9N  33.9W    85 KTS
36HR VT     24/1800Z 16.7N  36.4W    85 KTS
48HR VT     25/0600Z 17.4N  38.7W    80 KTS
72HR VT     26/0600Z 19.0N  44.0W    80 KTS
 
 
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