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HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 1998

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF JEANNE AND THE BANDING FEATURE WRAPS ALMOST
FULLY AROUND THE SYSTEM.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB 
AND SAB ARE 4.0. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KNOTS FOR
THIS ADVISORY.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR
40W WHICH IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
72-HOUR PERIOD.  THE ASSOCIATED SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF JEANNE BEYOND 24 HOURS. 
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/14 KNOTS.  THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
NORTH OF JEANNE SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE SYSTEM ON A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWEST COURSE THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND MOST OF THE TRACK MODEL
GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS AS DOES THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST. THIS TRACK
IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/0300Z 13.8N  27.4W    70 KTS
12HR VT     23/1200Z 14.3N  29.5W    75 KTS
24HR VT     24/0000Z 15.2N  32.4W    80 KTS
36HR VT     24/1200Z 15.9N  35.0W    80 KTS
48HR VT     25/0000Z 16.6N  37.5W    75 KTS
72HR VT     26/0000Z 18.0N  42.0W    75 KTS
 
 
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