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TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 1998
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BANDING TYPE PATTERNS.  INITIAL INTENSITY
IS INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS...A BLEND OF THE DVORAK ESTIMATES.  THE
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW APPEARS FAVORABLE...AND CONTINUED STRENGTHENING
TO HURRICANE INTENSITY IN 48 HOURS IS FORECAST.
 
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/14.  A RIDGE TO THE NORTH SHOULD
ALLOW THIS GENERAL MOTION TO CONTINUE.  CURRENT FORECAST TRACK
BASICALLY UPDATES THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH MOST GUIDANCE.
 
JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/0900Z 12.4N  23.2W    45 KTS
12HR VT     22/1800Z 13.0N  25.5W    50 KTS
24HR VT     23/0600Z 14.0N  28.7W    55 KTS
36HR VT     23/1800Z 14.9N  31.4W    60 KTS
48HR VT     24/0600Z 15.9N  34.2W    65 KTS
72HR VT     25/0600Z 18.2N  38.9W    65 KTS
 
 
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