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TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON SEP 21 1998
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BANDING TYPE PATTERN.  INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS AT 35 KNOTS...A BLEND OF THE DVORAK ESTIMATES.  THE UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW APPEARS FAVORABLE...AND CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12.  A RIDGE TO THE NORTH SHOULD
ALLOW THIS GENERAL MOTION TO CONTINUE.  CURRENT FORECAST TRACK
BASICALLY UPDATES THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH MOST GUIDANCE.
 
WE NOTE THAT THIS IS THE NINTH TROPICAL CYCLONE TO FORM IN THE
ATLANTIC DURING THE PAST 33 DAYS.  ALSO...THIS IS ONLY THE THIRD
SYSTEM IN MORE THAN 100 YEARS TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM THIS FAR
EAST.
 
MAYFIELD
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/0300Z 11.4N  21.2W    35 KTS
12HR VT     22/1200Z 11.8N  23.0W    40 KTS
24HR VT     23/0000Z 12.4N  25.7W    45 KTS
36HR VT     23/1200Z 13.0N  28.5W    50 KTS
48HR VT     24/0000Z 13.8N  31.5W    55 KTS
72HR VT     25/0000Z 15.5N  37.0W    60 KTS
 
 
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