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TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 21 1998
 
THE DISTURBANCE JUST OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY.  BANDING FEATURES ARE EVIDENT...
PARTICULARLY TO THE SW OF THE CENTER.  OUTFLOW IS MOST PROMINENT TO
THE WEST. DVORAK T-NUMBERS AND AN OBSERVATION FROM A SHIP NE OF THE
CENTER IMPLY WINDS OF ABOUT 35 KT...SO THE SYSTEM WILL BE STARTED AS
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE...PRONOUNCED JEEN.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS
ESTIMATED AT 285/12 KT.

A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF JEANNE IS FORECAST BY THE 12Z NOGAPS TO
BUILD WESTWARD...KEEPING THE STORM ON A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK
THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS THIS.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY
FORECAST SCHEME BRINGS JEANNE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH BUT THE BAM
OUTPUT IMPLIES SOME SHEAR FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AFFECTING
IVAN...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STRENGTHENING RATE IS NOT QUITE AS
GREAT.

WE NOTE THAT THIS IS THE NINTH TROPICAL CYCLONE TO FORM IN THE
ATLANTIC DURING THE PAST 33 DAYS.  ALSO...THIS IS ONLY THE THIRD
SYSTEM IN MORE THAN 100 YEARS TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM THIS FAR
EAST.

RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/2100Z 11.1N  20.0W    35 KTS
12HR VT     22/0600Z 11.5N  21.8W    40 KTS
24HR VT     22/1800Z 12.1N  24.4W    45 KTS
36HR VT     23/0600Z 12.8N  27.2W    50 KTS
48HR VT     23/1800Z 13.4N  29.8W    55 KTS
72HR VT     24/1800Z 14.5N  34.5W    60 KTS
 
 
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