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HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 1998
 
IVAN REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED BUT THE EYE FEATURE HAS DISAPPEARED AS
THE SYSTEM STARTS TO FILL.  ALTHOUGH THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
NUMBER ARE HELD TO 4.5...77 KNOTS...THE DATA T-NUMBERS ARE DROPPING.
AS A RESULT THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS REDUCE TO 65 KNOTS...MINIMUM
HURRICANE INTENSITY.  IVAN IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 24
HOURS.
 
THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD AND THE CURRENT
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 080/290...ABOUT THE SAME TRANSLATION SPEED AS
PREVIOUSLY.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE...OVER SPAIN IN 36 HOURS.  THIS TRACK REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH THE OBJECTIVE TRACK PREDICTION MODELS.
 
ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WILL NOT SPREAD OVER THE AZORES.
 
GROSS
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/2100Z 40.9N  29.0W    65 KTS
12HR VT     27/0600Z 41.7N  23.4W    60 KTS
24HR VT     27/1800Z 42.1N  13.8W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     28/0600Z 41.7N   2.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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