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HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 1998
 
IVAN REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED ...WITH A DISTINCT EYE ABOUT 18-
20 N MI IN DIAMETER.  THE CONVECTIVE TOPS ARE NOT VERY COLD...BUT
THIS IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR A HIGHER LATITUDE HURRICANE.  IT IS EXPECTED
THAT IVAN WILL ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS AND A MORE BAROCLINIC
ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND GRADUALLY LOSE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
 
THE HURRICANE HAS CONTINUED TO ACCELERATE DURING THE PAST 6 TO 12
HOURS AND THE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 085/24.  THE CURRENT
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.  IVAN IS
EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TO THE RIGHT WITH SLIGHT ADDITIONAL
ACCELERATION.  THIS IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE OBJECTIVE TRACK
PREDICTION MODELS.
 
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD
OVER PORTIONS OF THE AZORES ISLANDS BEGINNING IN ABOUT 12 HOURS.
 
JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/0900Z 39.2N  34.7W    80 KTS
12HR VT     26/1800Z 39.7N  30.0W    80 KTS
24HR VT     27/0600Z 39.2N  23.8W    70 KTS
36HR VT     27/1800Z 38.9N  18.3W    60 KTS
48HR VT     28/0600Z 38.4N  13.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
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