ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 1998 IVAN IS WELL-ORGANIZED AT THE MOMENT...WITH A DISTINCT EYE ABOUT 18- 20 N MI IN DIAMETER. THE CONVECTIVE TOPS ARE NOT VERY COLD...BUT THIS IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR A HIGHER LATITUDE HURRICANE. IT IS EXPECTED THAT IVAN WILL ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS AND A MORE BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND GRADUALLY LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE HURRICANE IS GRADUALLY ACCELERATING AND CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 060/18. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. IVAN IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TO THE RIGHT WITH FURTHER ACCELERATION. THIS IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE OBJECTIVE TRACK PREDICTION MODELS...AND THE FACT THAT IVAN IS ENCOUNTERING AN AREA OF STRONGER...AND ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED... WESTERLIES AT 500 MB. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE AZORES ISLANDS BEGINNING IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0300Z 38.5N 37.7W 80 KTS 12HR VT 26/1200Z 39.5N 34.5W 80 KTS 24HR VT 27/0000Z 39.5N 28.0W 70 KTS 36HR VT 27/1200Z 39.0N 22.0W 60 KTS 48HR VT 28/0000Z 38.5N 16.0W 50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN