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HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 1998
 
THE EYE OF IVAN APPEARS INTERMITTENTLY IN VISIBLE PICTURES.  DVORAK
T-NUMBERS REMAIN IN THE 4.0 TO 4.5 RANGE.  THUS THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 70 KNOTS.  THIS WILL BE HELD THROUGH 12
HOURS DECREASING TO 45 KNOTS BY 48 HOURS...THE SAME INTENSITY
FORECAST AS PREVIOUSLY.  
 
THE TURN TO THE NORTHEAST CONTINUES TO BE CONFIRMED BY THE LATEST
FIXES.  THE INITIAL MOTION...055/16...IS THE SAME AS PREVIOUSLY. 
THE FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES TO BEND THROUGH EAST TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 36 AND 48 HOURS WHEN THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.  THE HURRICANE WILL ACCELERATE ALONG THIS
TRACK...PASSING THE AZORES WITH NEAR HURRICANE CONDITIONS BETWEEN
THE 24 AND 36 HOUR FORECAST PERIODS.  MOST OF TRACK GUIDANCE IS
CLUSTERED ON THIS SOLUTION.
 
GROSS
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/2100Z 37.7N  39.5W    70 KTS
12HR VT     26/0600Z 39.1N  36.9W    70 KTS
24HR VT     26/1800Z 39.5N  31.6W    65 KTS
36HR VT     27/0600Z 39.5N  25.3W    55 KTS
48HR VT     27/1800Z 38.9N  17.9W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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