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HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 1998
 
WITH THE FIRST VISIBLE PICTURES A WELL-DEFINED EYE HAS RETURNED TO
HURRICANE IVAN.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN IN THE 4.0 TO 4.5 RANGE. 
THUS THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE MAINTAINED AT 70 KNOTS.  THIS
WILL BE HELD THROUGH 12 HOURS DECREASING TO 45 KNOTS BY 48 HOURS.
 
THE TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS CONFIRMED BY THE LATEST FIXES.  THE
INITIAL MOTION IS 055/16.  THE FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES BENDING TO
THE EAST UNTIL IT IS DUE EAST BETWEEN 36 AND 48 HOURS WHEN THE
SYSTEM WILL BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.  THE HURRICANE WILL ACCELERATE
ALONG THIS TRACK...PASSING THE AZORES WITH NEAR HURRICANE CONDITIONS
BETWEEN THE 24 AND 36 HOUR FORECAST PERIODS.  MOST OF TRACK GUIDANCE
IS CLUSTERED ON THIS SOLUTION.

GROSS

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/1500Z 36.5N  40.6W    70 KTS
12HR VT     26/0000Z 37.9N  38.2W    70 KTS
24HR VT     26/1200Z 39.1N  33.2W    65 KTS
36HR VT     27/0000Z 39.6N  27.2W    55 KTS
48HR VT     27/1200Z 39.6N  20.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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