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HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU SEP 24 1998
 
THE DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER OF IVAN AS DECREASED IN
INTENSITY BUT REMAINS SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO WARRANT DVORAK
SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS OF NEAR 70 KNOTS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY
WILL BE MAINTAINED AT 70 KNOTS.  

THE GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH FORECAST FOR THE LAST SEVERAL 
PACKAGES HAS BEGUN WITH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 360/10 
KNOTS.  THE FORECAST TRACK HAS IVAN BENDING NORTHEAST WITHIN 
24 HOURS THEN ACCELERATING TO THE EAST BY 36 HOURS. MOST OF 
THE 00Z TRACK GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED ON THIS SOLUTION.  THE SYSTEM 
IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND BECOME EXTRA-TROPICAL AS IT
HEADS EASTWARD ENCOUNTERING PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SSTS...24 DEG C
BY 36 HOURS...AND INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.    

THE SYSTEM COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE WESTERN
AZORES ON SATURDAY.
 
GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/0300Z 34.9N  42.0W    70 KTS
12HR VT     25/1200Z 36.6N  41.3W    65 KTS
24HR VT     26/0000Z 38.4N  38.1W    60 KTS
36HR VT     26/1200Z 39.0N  33.3W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     27/0000Z 39.0N  27.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     28/0000Z 39.5N  13.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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