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HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 24 1998
 
ALTHOUGH AN EYE IS NOT VISIBLE AT THIS TIME...IVAN RETAINS A CENTRAL
AREA OF RELATIVELY DEEP CONVECTION AND MAXIMUM WINDS ARE AGAIN
ESTIMATED AT 70 KT.  THE HEADING APPEARS TO HAVE SWUNG A LITTLE MORE
TO THE RIGHT...345/11 KT.
 
THE BEND IN TRACK COULD BE THE FIRST STAGE OF THE EXPECTED
RECURVATURE AS IVAN BEGINS TO GET CAUGHT UP IN THE MIDDLE LATITUDE
FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GUIDANCE IN SHOWING A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND THEN THE EAST.  BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...IVAN WILL LIKELY BE LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
WHILE PASSING OVER OR NEAR THE AZORES.
 
RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/1500Z 33.0N  42.0W    70 KTS
12HR VT     25/0000Z 34.8N  41.7W    70 KTS
24HR VT     25/1200Z 37.0N  39.2W    70 KTS
36HR VT     26/0000Z 38.2N  35.0W    65 KTS
48HR VT     26/1200Z 38.9N  29.3W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     27/1200Z 39.5N  17.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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