ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED SEP 23 1998 THE EYE IS NO LONGER APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING. THE CENTER IS EMBEDDED WITHIN -60C TO -65C CLOUD TOPS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 65 KNOTS IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE DVORAK INTENSITY CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB. WHILE SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM TURNS NORTHWARD IT SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH THE SYSTEM BECOMING EXTRA-TROPICAL BY 48 HOURS AS IT ENCOUNTERS 23/24C SST/S. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/10 KNOTS. IVAN REMAINS INVOLVED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW. MOST OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT SHOWING A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH BY 24 HOURS...AND A BEND TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY 48 HOURS. A LATE 18Z SHIP REPORT WAS RECEIVED...ID PJOX...REPORTING AN EAST WIND OF 75 KNOTS LOCATED ABOUT 70 NM NORTHEAST OF IVAN AT THE TIME. THE MARINE PREDICTION CENTER IN WASHINGTON D.C. DEEMED THE WIND THE OBSERVATION UNRELIABLE BASED ON THEIR QUALITY-CONTROL PROCESS. THIS INCLUDES TRACKING OF THE SHIPS WINDS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. GUINEY FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0300Z 30.9N 40.9W 65 KTS 12HR VT 24/1200Z 32.8N 41.5W 65 KTS 24HR VT 25/0000Z 35.9N 40.7W 70 KTS 36HR VT 25/1200Z 38.2N 37.2W 60 KTS 48HR VT 26/0000Z 39.5N 33.0W 50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 27/0000Z 40.0N 22.5W 45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN