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HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 23 1998
 
AN EYE WAS FIRST NOTED ABOUT 14Z.  IT HAS PERSISTED SINCE THEN AND
IS THE BASIS FOR UPGRADING IVAN TO A HURRICANE WITH 65 KT WINDS.
ONLY SLIGHT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO BE ACCELERATED OVER COOLER WATERS.
 
THE CURRENT MOTION IS 330/15 KT.  GUIDANCE TRACKS ARE IN FAIRLY
CLOSE AGREEMENT SHOWING A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH.  BY 48
HOURS...IVAN WILL BE MOVING NE OVER 24C WATER AND SHOULD BE LOSING
ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. 
  
RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/2100Z 30.2N  40.2W    65 KTS
12HR VT     24/0600Z 32.2N  40.9W    70 KTS
24HR VT     24/1800Z 34.8N  41.0W    70 KTS
36HR VT     25/0600Z 37.4N  39.6W    65 KTS
48HR VT     25/1800Z 39.6N  36.5W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     26/1800Z 41.5N  27.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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