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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 1998

VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION
WAS LOCATED A LITTLE BIT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE POSITION GIVEN THIS
MORNING.  BECAUSE THE DEPRESSION IS STILL IN FORMATIVE STAGES AND
THE CENTER IS POORLY DEFINED...THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE
LOCATION AND CURRENT MOTION. THE OUTFLOW IS FAIR AT THIS TIME
AND THE OCEAN IS WARM ENOUGH.  HOWEVER..MOST OF THE MODELS ARE
DEVELOPING A MAJOR UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL-EASTERN
ATLANTIC WHICH COULD INDUCE SOME SHEARING. THEREFORE...ONLY A
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WEST AT 10 KNOTS BUT IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS A THE MIDDLE-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS. IT APPEARS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL TURN
NORTHWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC.
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/2100Z 15.9N  33.0W    30 KTS
12HR VT     21/0600Z 16.2N  34.5W    40 KTS
24HR VT     21/1800Z 16.5N  36.5W    45 KTS
36HR VT     22/0600Z 17.5N  38.5W    45 KTS
48HR VT     22/1800Z 18.0N  41.0W    45 KTS
72HR VT     23/1800Z 20.0N  45.5W    45 KTS
 
 
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