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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 1998

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED
OFF THE AFRICAN COAST A FEW DAYS AGO HAS BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM IS
NEARING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE CENTER IS UNDER THE DEEP
CONVECTION...THE OUTFLOW IS FAIR AT THIS TIME AND THE OCEAN IS WARM
ENOUGH.  HOWEVER..MOST OF THE MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A MAJOR UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL-EASTERN ATLANTIC WHICH COULD INDUCE
SOME SHEARING. THEREFORE...ONLY A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS
INDICATED.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WEST AT 10 KNOTS BUT IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS A THE MIDDLE-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS. IT APPEARS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL TURN
NORTHWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC.  
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/1500Z 15.0N  32.8W    30 KTS
12HR VT     21/0000Z 15.0N  34.5W    35 KTS
24HR VT     21/1200Z 15.5N  36.5W    40 KTS
36HR VT     22/0000Z 16.5N  39.0W    45 KTS
48HR VT     22/1200Z 17.5N  42.0W    45 KTS
72HR VT     23/1200Z 19.5N  47.5W    45 KTS
 
 
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