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TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 1998
 
THE LAST FIX BY THE HURRICANE HUNTERS AT 0506Z PUT THE CENTER NEAR
THE COASTLINE.  SUBSEQUENT RADAR FIXES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS
MOVING INLAND...TOWARD THE NORTH...THE MOTION IS ESTIMATED
AT 010/10 KT.  THE DOPPLER RADAR DATA SHOW SOME BANDS OF TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE NHC ESTIMATE
REMAINS AT 35 KT.  THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE DOWNGRADED TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND WATCH WILL BE DISCONTINUED AT THAT TIME.
 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 22N
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.  THIS SHOULD STEER HERMINE AND ITS
REMNANTS TO THE NNE AND THEN THE NE.  THE TRACK MODELS AND OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOW THIS WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
 
THE PRIMARY THREAT REMAINS FLOODING FROM RAINS AND STORM SURGE IN
THE NORMALLY VULNERABLE LOWER LYING AREAS.  BOTH PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY
TO BE CONFINED TO THE AREA EAST OF THE TRACK.
 
JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/0900Z 29.8N  90.8W    35 KTS
12HR VT     20/1800Z 31.3N  90.5W    30 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     21/0600Z 33.5N  88.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
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