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TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 1998

THERE HAS BEEN NO FURTHER STRENGTHENING SINCE THIS MORNING.  IN
FACT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE
CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE IN AREAS OF STRONGER CONVECTION. 
THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS AGAIN LOCATED WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE DENSE
OVERCAST.  LATEST ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS
SHOW WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM...NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.  THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
NOT ALLOW ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN STRENGTH THROUGH TONIGHT...
AFTER WHICH TIME HERMINE IS FORECAST TO BE INLAND.

RECON AND SATELLITE FIXES GIVE A NORTHWARD MOTION OF 6 TO 8 KNOTS. 
USING THIS MOTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CARRIES THE CENTER INLAND
WITHIN 12 HOURS WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST THEREAFTER.  A MORE
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK...BEFORE LANDFALL...IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY SINCE
NEARLY ALL OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS SPREAD BETWEEN A 340 TO 030
DEGREE HEADING FOR THE FIRST 12 TO 24 HOURS.

BASED ON THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST...A SMALL WESTWARD OF
EXTENSION OF THE WARNING AREA WAS DONE.
 
PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     19/2100Z 28.5N  91.1W    40 KTS
12HR VT     20/0600Z 29.5N  91.0W    40 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     20/1800Z 31.0N  90.5W    30 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     21/0600Z 33.0N  89.0W    25 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     21/1800Z 35.0N  87.0W    25 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     22/1800Z 37.0N  81.5W    20 KTS...INLAND
 
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