ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 1998 THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FOUND A TIGHT CENTER OF 999 MB...3 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SO FAR ARE 38 KNOTS WHICH INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS STILL A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE ENVIRONMENT IS SOMEWHAT HOSTILE FOR STRENGTHENING AT THIS TIME BUT SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX. THEREFORE...THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING NORTHWARD BUT WITH THE APPROACHING MID TO UPPER TROUGH FROM THE WEST... A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH- NORTHEAST IS FORECAST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE. THIS TRACK REQUIRES AN EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH. AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/1500Z 26.1N 92.4W 30 KTS 12HR VT 19/0000Z 26.5N 92.4W 35 KTS 24HR VT 19/1200Z 27.5N 92.0W 40 KTS 36HR VT 20/0000Z 28.8N 91.5W 50 KTS 48HR VT 20/1200Z 31.0N 90.5W 35 KTS...INLAND 72HR VT 21/1200Z 34.0N 86.5W 25 KTS...INLAND NNNN