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TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 17 1998

THERE ARE MANY SATELLITE EXPERTS OUT THERE...AND WE KNOW THAT THEY
ARE SAYING THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW DEPRESSION
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS NOT THE TYPICAL ONE...OF COURSE IT IS NOT.
HOWEVER...A COUPLE OF AN AIR FORCE PLANES HAVE BEEN INVESTIGATING
THE AREA TODAY AND FOUND A VERY TIGHT AND WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION
WITH 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTER.  THERE ARE ALSO
CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. 
BASED ON THIS INFORMATION THE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME.  THE ENVIRONMENT IS HOSTILE FOR DEVELOPMENT
AT THIS TIME TO DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE SYSTEM TO A LARGE UPPER-
LOW OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.  MODELS ARE FORECASTING
THAT THE UPPER-LOW WILL WEAKEN AND THAT WOULD ALLOW THE DEPRESSION
TO STRENGTHEN AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

INITIAL MOTION IS 270/04. A GENERAL TRACK TOWARD THE WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE DEPRESSION MOVES TO THE NORTH OF
THE UPPER LOW.  THEREAFTER...MOST OF THE MODELS TURN THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE TO THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A NEW TROUGH. 

TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS REQUIRES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH AT
THIS TIME FROM SARGENT TEXAS TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA. THIS LARGE
AREA HAS BEEN CHOSEN DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST.
  
AVILA
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     17/2100Z 26.8N  92.0W    30 KTS
12HR VT     18/0600Z 26.8N  92.7W    35 KTS
24HR VT     18/1800Z 27.5N  93.5W    45 KTS
36HR VT     19/0600Z 29.0N  93.5W    55 KTS
48HR VT     19/1800Z 30.5N  93.0W    30 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     20/1800Z 33.0N  90.5W    25 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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