ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  53
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON SEP 28 1998
 
GEORGES HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT ENOUGH OF
THE CIRCULATION AND CORE HAS MOVED OVER LAND SO THAT WEAKENING IS
OCCURRING.  FURTHER WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
OVER LAND.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS COMPLICATED BY THE FACT THAT THE
GFDL MODEL KEEPS GEORGES MEANDERING NOT FAR FROM WHERE IT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS...BUT OTHER MODELS
SUCH AS THE BAROTROPIC...THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL AND THE DEEP BAM
MOVE GEORGES NEAR TO OR EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST IN 72
HOURS.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE
AND...PESSIMISTICALLY...KEEPS GEORGES OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD...WITH A LITTLE NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION LATER.  OF COURSE IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT THE SYSTEM
MAY MAKE CONTACT WITH STRONGER WESTERLIES AND BE CARRIED
SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER NORTHEAST OR EAST THAN SHOWN IN THIS FORECAST.

WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT...HUGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED. 
ADDITIONAL TOTALS OF 20 TO 30 INCHES ARE INDICATED IN THIS ADVISORY.

WARNINGS WILL BE KEPT UP ON THE COAST AS WINDS ARE STILL FAIRLY
STRONG. HOWEVER THE STORM SURGE SHOULD BE DECREASING.

PASCH 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/1500Z 30.4N  89.0W    80 KTS
12HR VT     29/0000Z 30.4N  89.4W    75 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     29/1200Z 30.7N  89.5W    65 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     30/0000Z 31.0N  89.5W    55 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     30/1200Z 31.5N  89.5W    45 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     01/1200Z 32.0N  89.0W    30 KTS...INLAND
 
NNNN