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HURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  52
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON SEP 28 1998

THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE INTENSITY OR TRACK
FORECASTS.  GEORGES IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST ABOUT 5 KNOTS AND MOST
OF THE MODELS SUGGEST VERY LITTLE MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24 OR 36
HOURS.  IN FACT...THE GFDL KEEPS THE HURRICANE BASICALLY IN THE SAME
AREA THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND KEEPS GEORGES DRIFTING ONE A GENERAL NORTH-
NORTHWEST TRACK DURING THE 3 DAYS.  THE SLOW MOTION ALLOWS FOR LOTS
OF RAIN AND THIS IS INDICATIVE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR SERIOUS
FRESH WATER FLOODING.  COMBINE THIS WITH STRONG ONSHORE WINDS PILING
UP THE GULF WATERS ALONG THE COAST.  WE ARE TALKING SERIOUS FLOOD
POTENTIAL.
 
BOTH NOOA AND AIR FORCE PLANE HAVE BEEN IN THE EYE OF GEORGES AND
THE MINIMUM PRESSURES WERE 960 AND 964 MB RESPECTIVELY. A DROP IN
THE EYEWALL RECORDED 101 KNOTS AT THE 920 MB LEVEL AND THIS
COINCIDES WITH DOPPLER WINDS FROM NEW ORLEANS RADAR.  SATELLITE 
SHOWS A WELL DEFINED RING OF DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE.
THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE HURRICANE REMAINS WITH MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS
OF 90 KNOTS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER THE CENTER MOVES
OVER LAND.

BILOXI MISSISSIPPI JUST REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 126 MPH. 

AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/0900Z 30.2N  88.8W    90 KTS
12HR VT     28/1800Z 30.5N  89.1W    90 KTS
24HR VT     29/0600Z 30.6N  89.3W    80 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     29/1800Z 31.0N  89.5W    65 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     30/0600Z 31.5N  89.5W    45 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     01/0600Z 32.0N  89.0W    35 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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