ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER 51 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 1998 THE MOTION HAS BEEN ERRATIC...BUT THE PAST 12 HOUR MOTION AVERAGES OUT TO 335/06 AND THE 6 HOUR MOTION IS ONLY 4 KNOTS. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE...AGAIN...HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH...AND SHOWS THE HURRICANE TRAPPED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CELLS TO THE EAST AND WEST. THE UKMET...GFDL...AND LBAR...ALL SHOW VERY SLOW MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS. FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BECAUSE OF THE INITIAL MOTION AND IS THEN SLOWED DOWN EVEN MORE THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE GFDL MODEL SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE WEST THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THEN A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH...BUT VERY SLOW AVERAGING ABOUT 3 KNOTS. SO AT 24 HOURS...THE OFFICIAL TRACK SHOWS A PARTIAL LEFT TURN OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE GFDL MODEL. IN ANY CASE...THE SLOW MOTION ALLOWS FOR LOTS OF RAIN...THE GFDL MODEL SHOWS A MAX OF 62 INCHES OVER EASTERN LOUISIANA. THIS IS PROBABLY EXCESSIVE...BUT IS INDICATIVE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR SERIOUS FRESH WATER FLOODING. COMBINE THIS WITH STRONG ONSHORE WINDS PILING UP THE GULF WATERS ALONG THE COAST. WE ARE TALKING SERIOUS FLOOD POTENTIAL. THE WIND SPEED IS DECREASED 5 KNOTS TO 90 KNOTS BASED ON HRD WIND FIELD ANALYSES...EVEN THOUGH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE REMAINS AT 961 MB. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER THE CENTER MOVES OVER LAND. LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/0300Z 29.5N 88.6W 90 KTS 12HR VT 28/1200Z 29.9N 88.9W 90 KTS 24HR VT 29/0000Z 30.3N 89.2W 80 KTS...INLAND 36HR VT 29/1200Z 30.5N 89.6W 65 KTS...INLAND 48HR VT 30/0000Z 30.8N 89.6W 45 KTS...INLAND 72HR VT 01/0000Z 31.5N 89.5W 35 KTS...INLAND NNNN