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HURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  50
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 1998

...CORRECTION FOR INITIAL POSITION 27/2100Z...

THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF THE CENTER OF GEORGES FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE RADAR IN NEW ORLEANS HAS BEEN RATHER POOR THE LAST
6 HOURS OR SO WITH A 50 PERCENT OPEN EYE WALL.  THE AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN REPORTING A SIMILAR EYE
STATE WITH THE OPENING ROTATING FROM THE SOUTH TO NORTHWEST  TO
SOUTHWEST.  THE OPENING HAS BEEN OCCURRING ON THE OPPOSITE SIDE 
THE STRONGEST CONVECTION.  THE LATEST RECON...1935Z...NOW REPORTS 
A CLOSED EYE WALL AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 961 MB. MAXIMUM FLIGHT-
LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN HOVERING AROUND 85 KT ALTHOUGH A GPS DROPSONDE
RECORDED A 100 KT WIND AT 952 MB.  WITH NO DATA TO THE CONTRARY THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 95 KT...AND WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH 24
HOURS. HOWEVER...SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE STILL POSSIBLE
AND GEORGES COULD REACH CATEGORY THREE STATUS PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN NEW ORLEANS
SHOW THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS...34 KT...AT 18Z.  DAUPHIN
ISLAND C-MAN BUOY RECENTLY REPORTED A 58 MPH SUSTAINED WIND OVER 
2 MINUTES WITH A PEAK GUST TO HURRICANE FORCE.  BUOY 42040 IS
REPORTING 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WINDS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE A 969.8
MB PRESSURE AND SEAS TO 36 FEET.  THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
USING THE MOST CURRENT SURFACE REPORTS AND RECONNAISSANCE DATA.

WHILE THE RECONNAISSANCE AND HOURLY RADAR POSITION ESTIMATES HAVE
BEEN SHOWING SOME WOBBLE IN THE CENTER LOCATION THE 6-HOURLY MOTION
IS NORTHWESTWARD. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/07 KT.  A
GRADUAL DECELERATION IS STILL FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS  
AS ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING COLLAPSES. THE 18Z TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE
IS MORE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A NORTHWEST HEADING FOR THE FIRST 24 
TO 36 HOURS WITH BEND TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST THEREAFTER.  NOGAPS
IS THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION WHICH MOVES GEORGES WESTWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY MAINLY DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION.

THE CONSEQUENCES OF THIS SLOW-MOVING HURRICANE COULD BE COPIOUS 
RAINFALL IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA AS WELL AS A PROLONGED 
LONG PERIOD OF ONSHORE WINDS AND STORM SURGE FLOODING.  

THE HURRICANE WATCH EAST OF PANAMA CITY TO ST. MARKS FLORIDA WILL
BE LOWERED.

GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/2100Z 29.0N  88.5W    95 KTS
12HR VT     28/0600Z 29.5N  89.1W    95 KTS
24HR VT     28/1800Z 30.0N  89.6W    95 KTS
36HR VT     29/0600Z 30.5N  89.7W    75 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     29/1800Z 31.0N  89.6W    45 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     30/1800Z 32.0N  89.0W    35 KTS...INLAND
  
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