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HURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  49
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 1998
 
THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED
A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 963 MB FROM A GPS DROPSONDE WITH
MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 86 KNOTS.  BUOY 42040 REPORTED A 
45 KT 8-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND...APPROXIMATELY 55 KT 1-MINUTE WIND
SPEED...AND 33 FOOT SEAS AT 12Z WHILE THE C-MAN BUOY NEAR THE MOUTH
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WAS 39 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE
HELD AT 95 KNOTS.  THIS KEEPS GEORGES ON THE HIGH END OF CATEGORY
TWO STATUS.  THE FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR GEORGES TO STRENGTHEN 
TO A CATEGORY THREE BEFORE LANDFALL. 

BASED ON THE WIND DATA ABOVE...RECON WIND PLOTS AND HURRICANE
RESEARCH DIVISION...HRD...ANALYSES THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED.  THE PRIMARY CHANGE IS THE ADDITION OF HURRICANE-FORCE
WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.  

FIXES FROM RECON AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SUGGEST
A SLIGHT SLOWING IN THE FORWARD SPEED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS.  THE 
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/07.  THE SYNOPTIC REASONING REGARDING
THE TRACK REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE LAST SEVERAL ADVISORIES. A
GRADUAL SLOWDOWN IS FORECAST AS STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN.  THUS...
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. THIS MEANS THAT THE HURRICANE COULD PRODUCE EXTREMELY
LARGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COMBINED WITH A LONG PERIOD OF ONSHORE WINDS
AND STORM SURGE FLOODING.  GEORGES IS A VERY SERIOUS THREAT AND IT
COULD BE EVEN WORSE IF THERE IS FURTHER STRENGTHENING.
 
GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/1500Z 28.4N  88.0W    95 KTS
12HR VT     28/0000Z 28.9N  88.7W   100 KTS
24HR VT     28/1200Z 29.6N  89.5W   100 KTS
36HR VT     29/0000Z 30.3N  89.9W    80 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     29/1200Z 30.8N  89.9W    65 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     30/1200Z 31.5N  89.5W    50 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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