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HURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  48
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 1998
 
THE INTENSITY OF GEORGES HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE
PAST 24 HOURS.  THE HURRICANE IS MOVING OVER A WARM OCEAN AND THE
SHEAR IS LOW BUT...AT THIS STAGE...THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH
FOR THE HURRICANE TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY.  IT HAS BEEN DISCUSSED IN
MOST OF THE HURRICANE INTENSITY CHANGE WORKSHOPS...THAT...FOR RAPID
INTENSIFICATION...THERE SHOULD BE AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE
AND/OR A TROUGH INTERACTION.  THESE TWO PROCESSES ARE VERY DIFFICULT
TO EVALUATE...BUT WITH THE LIMITED AVAILABLE INFORMATION...NONE OF
THE ABOVE PROCESSES ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR BECAUSE THE INGREDIENTS ARE
NOT PRESENT.  THERE IS NOT A PERSISTENT AND WELL DEFINED INNER
CORE...NO DOUBLE EYE STRUCTURE EITHER AND THERE IS NO UPPER-TROUGH
APPROACHING THE HURRICANE.  ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS
THEN FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL.  THIS IS AN ARRESTED FORECAST BECAUSE
THE ABOVE PROCESSES ARE STILL IN THEORY AND HAVE NOT BEEN TRANSLATED
INTO OPERATIONAL TOOLS YET.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS 310/09.  THE STEERING PATTERN IS EVOLVING AS
FORECAST.  THEREFORE...NO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS NECESSARY.   MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE STEERING
CURRENTS WILL COLLAPSE AS THE HURRICANE MAKES LANDFALL.  THIS MEANS
THAT THE HURRICANE WOULD SLOW DOWN CONSIDERABLY AND COULD PRODUCE
EXTREMELY LARGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COMBINED WITH A LONG PERIOD OF
ONSHORE WINDS AND STORM SURGE FLOODING.  GEORGES IS A VERY SERIOUS
THREAT AND IT COULD BE EVEN WORSE IF THE HURRICANE STRENGTHENS MORE
THAN
FORECAST.
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/0900Z 28.1N  87.6W    95 KTS
12HR VT     27/1800Z 28.7N  88.6W   100 KTS
24HR VT     28/0600Z 29.4N  89.3W   100 KTS
36HR VT     28/1800Z 30.0N  90.0W    80 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     29/0600Z 30.5N  90.0W    65 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     30/0600Z 31.0N  90.0W    50 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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