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HURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  47
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 1998
 
THE LATEST RECON FIX GIVES A MOTION OF 310/09 FOR THE PAST 12
HOURS...COMPARED TO 305/09 ON THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE PAST 6 HOUR
MOTION IS 315/09.
 
THE GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE...AGAIN.   ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW A
SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
EAST...NORTH...AND WEST OF THE HURRICANE.  THE 12Z UKMET AND NOGAPS
MODELS SHOW A 72 HOUR POSITION JUST OFFSHORE OF THE CENTRAL
LOUISIANA COAST.  THE LBAR 72 HOUR POSITION IS IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA
AND THE GFDL 72 HOUR POSITION IS IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.  THE GFDL
MODEL...BASED ON THE 18Z AVIATION RUN IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN ITS
PREVIOUS RUN.  THE AVIATION MODEL IS IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND IS
SOMEWHAT LEFT OF ITS PREVIOUS RUN.
 
IN SUMMARY...THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE REACHING
NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND
SLOWING DOWN.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GFDL MODEL...EXCEPT
IS A LITTLE SLOWER AFTER 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALSO
VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST...SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE
RIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT INITIAL MOTION.
 
THE LATEST RECON FIX HAD A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 968 MB...NO CHANGE
FROM EARLIER.  THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED AN ELLIPTICAL SHAPED EYE AT
2325Z AND THEN NO EYE AT 0113Z.  HOWEVER SATELLITE SHOWS AN EYE
FEATURE FORMING AND KEVX EGLIN RADAR SHOWS EVIDENCE OF AN EYE
AT ABOUT 200 MILES RANGE.  THE LATEST HRD SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE
WIND SPEED UP 5 KNOTS TO 75 KNOTS.  THE MAXIMUM AIRCRAFT WIND SPEED
WAS 86 KNOTS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT WHICH IS A LITTLE LESS THAT
THE PREVIOUS RECON MISSION.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED AND FORECAST IS
KEPT THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...EXCEPT FOR BRINGING THE
WINDS DOWN SOME MORE AT 48 AND 72 HOURS AS THE CENTER IS FORECAST A
LITTLE FURTHER INLAND.
 
THE FORECAST SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE HURRICANE PROVIDES AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR EXTREMELY LARGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COMBINED WITH A LONG PERIOD OF
ONSHORE WINDS AND STORM SURGE FLOODING.  THE GFDL MODEL PROJECTS
SOME 32 INCHES OF RAIN ALONG THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE.
 
LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/0300Z 27.3N  86.8W    95 KTS
12HR VT     27/1200Z 28.1N  87.8W    95 KTS
24HR VT     28/0000Z 28.8N  88.7W   100 KTS
36HR VT     28/1200Z 29.4N  89.5W   100 KTS
48HR VT     29/0000Z 30.3N  90.0W    80 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     30/0000Z 31.0N  90.0W    55 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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