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HURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  45
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 1998
 
DATA FROM A NOAA BUOY AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE SHOW A RATHER
ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD AT THIS TIME WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND A MUCH LONGER EXTENT OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THAT DIRECTION.  LIGHT WESTERLY SHEAR
IS ANALYZED AND THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE AGAIN ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 90
KT.
 
WHILE THE TRACK HAS EDGED TOWARD THE LEFT OVER THE PAST FEW
FORECASTS...THE FINAL CENTER FIX FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOR THIS
ADVISORY SUGGESTS THAT THE HEADING HAS EASED BACK TO 300 DEGREES AT
10 KT.  THE LARGE SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ANTICYCLONE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND A TROUGH SWINGING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN STATES.  THIS TROUGH
PASSES BY TO THE NORTH OF GEORGES AND THE TRAILING DEVELOPING RIDGE
COULD SLOW OR BLOCK THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS GEORGES APPROACHES LAND.  THE TRACK MODELS GENERALLY SHOW
THIS SLOWING...BUT THEIR SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER 48 HOURS. 
THE PRIMARY THREAT REMAINS FOR THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO LOUISIANA AND A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW ISSUED FROM
MORGAN CITY TO PANAMA CITY.
 
GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY...GEORGES IS LIKELY TO POSE A
SIGNIFICANT FLOOD DANGER DUE TO BOTH STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL.
 
RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/1500Z 26.1N  85.6W    90 KTS
12HR VT     27/0000Z 26.9N  87.0W    95 KTS
24HR VT     27/1200Z 28.2N  88.4W    95 KTS
36HR VT     28/0000Z 29.0N  89.1W   100 KTS
48HR VT     28/1200Z 29.9N  89.6W   100 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     29/1200Z 30.5N  90.0W    70 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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