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HURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  44
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 1998

THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WIND OR PRESSURE PATTERN
ASSOCIATED WITH GEORGES. MINIMUM PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR 974 MB AND
PEAK WINDS ARE ABOUT 90 KNOTS. THE INNER CORE HAS NOT REFORMED
COMPLETELY YET SINCE IT WAS DISRUPTED BY LAND.  HOWEVER...IT USUALLY
TAKES TIME FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO RECOVER FROM THE INTERACTION
WITH LAND.  ONE SHOULD MENTION THAT THE INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL
...SHIPS...DOES NOT STRENGTHEN THE HURRICANE AND THE GFDL IS NOT
SHOWING THE EXPLOSIVE INTENSIFICATION WHICH IT NORMALLY FORECASTS. 
THIS SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE SOME FACTORS INHIBITING THE
STRENGTHENING.  BECAUSE MOST OF THE MODELS MAINTAIN LOW SHEAR OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WATER IS WARM...A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING
IS INDICATED.  

INITIAL MOTION IS 295/08.  THERE IS A STRONG 500 MB RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF THE HURRICANE WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD. THIS
WOULD ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO MOVE ON A NORTHWESTERLY TRACK.
HOWEVER...MODELS...MAINLY THE UKMET AND NOGAPS ARE FORECASTING A
TRACK MORE TO THE WEST AND BOTH KEEP THE HURRICANE MOVING ALONG THE
LOUISIANA AND EASTERN TEXAS COASTS. THE GFDL SLOWS DOWN THE
HURRICANE CONSIDERABLY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT A SMALL
WESTWARD SHIFT MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY IF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A WESTWARD TREND AND A RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH.  

AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/0900Z 25.5N  84.5W    90 KTS
12HR VT     26/1800Z 25.9N  85.7W    95 KTS
24HR VT     27/0600Z 27.1N  87.3W    95 KTS
36HR VT     27/1800Z 28.0N  88.5W   100 KTS
48HR VT     28/0600Z 29.0N  89.5W   100 KTS
72HR VT     29/0600Z 30.0N  90.0W    80 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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