ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER 43 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 1998 RADAR AND AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIXES DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF GEORGES HAS BEEN WOBBLING WESTWARD. HOWEVER...THE MOST RECENT RADAR POSITION ESTIMATE SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM MAY BE RESUMING A MORE WEST- NORTHWESTWARD HEADING. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/07 KNOTS. RECON DATA INDICATES THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN GEORGES INTENSITY THE PAST SIX HOURS OR SO. THE LATEST AIRCRAFT VORTEX MESSAGE SHOWED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 973 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 94 KNOTS. THE DRY TORTUGAS C-MAN BUOY REPORTED SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 50 KNOTS AND A PRESSURE OF 989.9 MB AT 01Z. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 90 KNOTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THE OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT BUT REMAINS IMPRESSIVE ELSEWHERE. ANALYSES FROM THE COOPERATIVE INSTITUTE FOR METEOROLOGICAL SATELLITE STUDIES AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW SOME 20-30 KT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE NORTHEAST/CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH GEORGES SHOULD LESSEN THE SHEAR AS IT BUILDS NORTHWARD IT STILL MAY HAMPER FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE FORECAST CONTINUES THE TREND OF GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION BRINGING GEORGES TO CATEGORY THREE STATUS BY 36 HOURS. THE MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE SCATTER WITH LBAR...UKMET AND NOGAPS SHOWING A 72 HOUR POSITION SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA COAST WHILE THE GFDL...AVN AND A98E ARE INLAND BETWEEN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY 48 HOURS. THE GFDL AND AVN INDICATE THAT GEORGES ROTATES AROUND THE 500 MB ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST. THE EVOLVING SYNOPTIC PATTERN INDICATES THAT THE FORWARD MOTION MAY SLOW. THE NOAA G-IV JET IS PERFORMING A SYNOPTIC FLOW MISSION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING WITH THE DATA TO BE USED TO INITIALIZE THE 00Z GLOBAL MODELS. WARNINGS MAY BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA OF THE NORTH GULF COAST SATURDAY. GUINEY FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0300Z 24.9N 83.5W 90 KTS 12HR VT 26/1200Z 25.4N 84.9W 95 KTS 24HR VT 27/0000Z 26.5N 86.5W 95 KTS 36HR VT 27/1200Z 27.7N 87.9W 100 KTS 48HR VT 28/0000Z 29.0N 88.6W 100 KTS 72HR VT 29/0000Z 31.5N 89.5W 35 KTS...INLAND NNNN