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HURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  41
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 1998
 
THE STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY OF GEORGES HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS.  AN OPEN EYEWALL IS EVIDENT ON RADAR AND TO THE
HURRICANE HUNTERS.  HEAVIEST CONVECTION...WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS...RAIN AND SURGE ARE ON THE EAST SIDE AND ARE SPREADING OVER
THE FLORIDA KEYS.  SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A FAINT EYE AT THIS
TIME.  THE HURRICANE HUNTERS MEASURED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 105
KT...WHILE SPOT WINDS MEASURED IN THE EYEWALL BY A DROPSONDE WERE AS
HIGH AS 109 KT ALOFT AND 85 KT AT THE SURFACE.  THE ESTIMATED
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 90 KT BASED ON
THESE DATA.
 
THE LARGE-SCALE HIGH OVER TEXAS IS FORECAST BY THE 06Z AVN AND 00Z
NOGAPS TO SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE U.S. SOUTHEAST COAST DURING THE NEXT
TWO DAYS.  THIS PUTS GEORGES ON THE SW SIDE OF THAT FEATURE...IN A
STEERING CURRENT THAT IS CONSISTENT WITH A CONTINUED NW MOTION AS
SHOWN BY THE MODEL AND OFFICIAL TRACKS.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS
ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED WITH JUST A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE LEFT.
THIS IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE OTHER MODEL
TRACKS.
 
THIS POSES AN INCREASING THREAT FROM LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW ISSUED FOR PART OF THAT
AREA.
 
CIRRUS ELEMENTS ARE NO LONGER EXPANDING OUTWARD TO THE NORTHWEST SO
THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT MIGHT NOT BE QUITE AS CONDUCIVE TO
FURTHER  STRENGTHENING AS EARLIER.  THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY
SCHEMES SHOW A LITTLE INCREASE IN THE WIND...NOT QUITE AS MUCH AS
SHOWN IN THE CURRENT AND PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECASTS.
 
RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/1500Z 24.3N  81.7W    90 KTS
12HR VT     26/0000Z 25.3N  83.4W    90 KTS
24HR VT     26/1200Z 26.7N  85.3W    95 KTS
36HR VT     27/0000Z 28.1N  86.7W   100 KTS
48HR VT     27/1200Z 29.6N  87.9W   100 KTS
72HR VT     28/1200Z 33.0N  88.5W    40 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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