ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER 39 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU SEP 24 1998 THE EYE IS BECOMING BETTER-DEFINED AS IT APPROACHES THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. LATEST RECON REPORTS SHOWED A CLOSED WALL. THE UPPER- LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS IMPRESSIVE...AND SUBSTANTIAL STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH SHOWS GEORGES EVENTUALLY RE-ATTAINING CATEGORY 3 STATUS. IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE ONLY FACTORS THAT MIGHT LIMIT INTENSIFICATION ARE A LITTLE MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE AND PERHAPS SOME INCREASED SHEAR OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. NO BIG CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST SINCE THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...AND MY SYNOPTIC REASONING IS THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AS WELL. THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE STEERED ON A COURSE FROM WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST...BETWEEN A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF GEORGES AND A MID- TO UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A GRADUAL TRANSITION AT 500 MB DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...FROM A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN TO A HIGHER AMPLITUDE ONE OVER THE U.S. AND THIS COULD ALLOW A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE LATEST GFDL RUN AT 72 HOURS...AND ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE 2- TO 3-DAY TIME FRAME. AS ALWAYS...THE 3-DAY FORECAST POSITIONS ARE SUBJECT TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY. ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM LOUISIANA EASTWARD SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LARGE AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE. RECON DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE 50-KNOT WIND RADIUS NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED TO THE NORTHEAST...TO 125 N MI. THIS MEANS THAT A LARGE PART OF SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD EXPERIENCE POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0300Z 23.2N 79.6W 80 KTS 12HR VT 25/1200Z 24.3N 81.0W 90 KTS 24HR VT 26/0000Z 25.8N 82.8W 95 KTS 36HR VT 26/1200Z 27.2N 84.5W 100 KTS 48HR VT 27/0000Z 28.5N 86.0W 100 KTS 72HR VT 28/0000Z 31.5N 88.5W 65 KTS...INLAND NNNN